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Car-Free Life Comes With A Quandary. Fortunately, Milam’s Markets Has Some Answers

Mindful of the traffic woes along U.S. 1, hometown favorite Milam’s Markets is opening a location on the west side of the highway.

The new Milam’s Market grocery will cover the ground floor — similar in size to a typical Target store — at the 36-story apartment building Cascade at Link at Douglas, which is under construction next to the Douglas Road Metrorail Station just west of Coconut Grove. The project includes a second, 22-story tower. Cascade will open in 2022.

The Coconut Grove-Coral Gables-South Miami area has an abundance of grocers, including Fresh Market, Publix, Whole Foods and several Milam’s Markets. Most are located east of U.S. 1. The new Milam’s — the family-owned group’s sixth store — will offer a new option west of the busy thoroughfare for apartment dwellers who depend on public transit.

Rendering of The Link at Douglas, being developed by 13th Floor Investments and the Adler Group. (CREDIT: ADLER GROUP/13TH FLOOR INVESTMENTS)

“Our new store will provide a shopping experience similar to our other stores. Not only will we be able to better serve those living on the West side of US-1 — trust us, we know how hard it can be to cross that intersection sometimes — but we will also be joining the ‘Urban Evolution’ and Metrorail redevelopment with our store having immediate access to the Douglas Metrorail Station,” said Kristie Milam, Milam’s Markets CMO and director of real estate, in a statement.

Miami-based Milam’s first opened in 1984. The upscale grocer now has locations in Coral Gables, Coconut Grove, Pinecrest Plaza, Miami Springs and Sunny Isles Beach.

Link at Douglas’ first tower is expected to open in the second quarter of this year. The seven-acre project — developed by 13th Floor Investments, Adler Group and Barings — includes rental apartments, retail space and offices. It is adjacent to The Underline, a 10-mile-long linear park running underneath the Metrorail from South Miami to downtown Miami.

 

Source: Miami Herald

 

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Tax Relief May Be Coming To Miami-Dade Commercial Property Owners

Tax relief may be coming to commercial and industrial property owners in Miami-Dade County.

Miami-Dade County’s Office of the Property Appraiser announced on Thursday that it will consider landlords’ financial losses when assessing 2021 fair market values.

The office will consider local market conditions, like vacancy and rental rates, as well as individual property conditions such as lease agreements and concessions, according to a press release. The move could help landlords save on property taxes while the country returns to pre-Covid-19 activity.

The office will also consider expenses as of Jan. 1 of the year, unit counts, leasable areas, gross rents and professional estimates of market value from licensed appraisers.

That’s good news for some of the harder hit properties in the area. Landlords in the Miami-Dade office market, for example, have offered incentives in exchange for keeping rents from dropping as workers go remote.

“The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in the commercial real estate market have been unprecedented,” Miami-Dade Property Appraiser Pedro Garcia said in a statement. “Many property owners relying on rental income to cover operating expenses are struggling or unable to meet their financial obligations.”

Last year, the owners of Aventura ParkSquare, the SunTrust office building on Brickell and the Delano South Beach filed lawsuits against Garcia, seeking to lower their tax appraisals for the 2019 tax year.

Overall, property tax values across Miami-Dade County rose in 2020 compared to the previous year. The taxable value for Miami-Dade properties totaled $324.36 million, up 5.1 percent from 2019, according to the property appraiser’s office.

 

Source:  The Real Deal

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Related Scores $88M Construction Loan For Dorsey Project In Wynwood

The Related Group and its partners secured an $87.5 million construction loan for the Dorsey project in Wynwood.

Bank OZK provided the financing for the 12-story mixed-use development planned for Northwest Third Avenue between 28th and 29th streets. Related, Alex Karakhanian’s Lndmrk Development and Tricera Capital are partnering to develop the project.

The Dorsey will include 306 apartments, with a majority between 500 square feet and 620 square feet, with some as small as 400 square feet. The commercial space will be divided into about 33,000 square feet of retail and 78,000 square feet of office. The project will also run along a planned woonerf, a Dutch-inspired pedestrian-friendly street. The Related joint venture secured approval for the project from the Miami Urban Development Review Board in late 2019. Arquitectonica is the architect.

Monthly rents are expected to range between $1,800 and $3,900. Amenities will include a gym with a yoga studio and spa, a courtyard, recreation area for pets and a garage, according to a spokesperson.

Karakhanian said the building is expected to be delivered in about 20 months. Construction began this month.

Weck 29 LLC paid $32 million for the assemblage in September 2019. Affiliated companies secured the loan.

Related has been active in Wynwood, where Jon Paul Pérez, newly minted president of the firm, has taken the helm.

 

Source:  The Real Deal

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Wynwood Votes Down 12-Story Mixed-Use Project

A sprawling mixed-use proposal plans to bring with it apartments and more than 60,000 square feet of office space to two lots in Wynwood.

PRN N. MIAMI is planned for property at 2150 N Miami Ave.

Along with the new office space, the 12-story project is to include 317 residential units, 22,700 square feet of commercial-retail uses, and a garage for up to 534 vehicles.

The Wynwood Design Review Committee recently voted to recommend denial, after itemizing concerns about the project.

After the meeting, attorney Iris Escarra said the developer appreciates the committee comments, is seeking to incorporate them into the design, and will submit updated plans to the City of Miami’s Planning Department for consideration by the Urban Development Review Board early in 2021.

Ms. Escarra said the committee requested that the applicant consider the following items:

  • Emphasize the lobby entrance at the East Tower.
  • Break up the retail/pedestrian façade on North Miami Avenue (East Tower) and Northwest 22nd Street (West Tower) by bringing the vertical elements to the ground level.
  • Further articulate the garage screening on the East Tower.
  • Add landscaping on the north setback area of the East Tower.
  • Reconsider the architectural treatment on the West Tower at the northeast corner, including changing of the curved balconies.

Brian A. Dombrowski, an attorney also representing the developer, wrote to the city saying the site plan was prepared by CFE Architects.

He said the property consists of 95,090 square feet or 2.182 acres. The existing structures at the property are to be demolished.

“The Property has a Principal Frontage on N Miami Avenue which bisects the Property. The Property fronts NE/NW 22 Street to the North comprising the Property’s Secondary Frontage, with NW Miami Court on the West being a Secondary Frontage as well,” wrote Mr. Dombrowski.

The site has the FEC Railway tracks to the east and commercial properties to the south.

He said the property is generally divided into two parcels, Parcel 1 to the west of North Miami Avenue and Parcel 2 to the east of North Miami Avenue.

The property is to be developed with a 12-story mixed-use structure consisting of retail, office, and residential uses.

The east parcel would be of retail space at the ground level, a 7-level parking garage lined on the east façade with residential units up to the 8th level, and office space up to the 12th level.

The west parcel would have retail at the ground level, residential units up to the 12th level and amenity spaces for the residents.

The developer is requesting waivers including:

  • To permit up to a 10% increase in the maximum floorplate length above the 8th story for residential uses. This waiver is requested in order to create an effective design.
  • To permit additional residential floorplate dimensions not to exceed 30,000 square feet.
  • To allow a decrease of required parking by up to 30% within the quarter-mile radius of a Transit Corridor. The waiver would reduce the required parking from 719 spaces to 504.

 

Source:  Miami Today

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Dozens Of New Stores And Restaurants Are Coming, Despite COVID-19

Never mind COVID-19. People in South Florida appear ready to eat and shop.

From West Palm Beach to the commercial enclaves of Miami, shoppers are cautiously easing back into the fold, but with a preference for open spaces, familiar brands, things to do besides shopping and, of course, safety precautions against the coronavirus.

In turn, a new stable of retailers has taken notice. Many are replacing those who failed during the early stages of the pandemic, confident they can adjust to changing consumer needs and preferences, analysts and developers say.

“People are looking for more of an experience similar to Wynwood [in Miami], where you have an integration of art and fashion and events and drinking and retail,” said Dave Preston, executive managing director of the real estate service firm Colliers International in Miami. “It’s much more interactive and reengaging and more modern. Consumers are raising their expectations. That’s what they’re looking for these days.”

According to a survey of buying habits by the Boston consulting firm McKinsey & Company, consumers nationwide are increasingly supporting local retailers.

“Community spirit is high,” the survey concluded. “People are shopping more with local brands, both for convenience and to support their community: 46% are shopping in closer neighborhood stores and 80% feel more or as connected to their communities. Meanwhile, 88% expect these connections to remain long after the crisis is over.”

The prescription appears to be in play in West Palm Beach, where the Related Companies of New York completely made over the decades-old CityPlace enclave. Now known as Rosemary Square, the area consists of a 72-acre residential and commercial neighborhood with a growing roster of new retail and restaurant tenants supplemented by art and cultural exhibitions.

Within the last half of 2020, the developer has welcomed the outdoor gear retailer Yeti and clothiers Lululemon, Faherty and Nantucket Whaler, as well as Solid & Striped, a designer swimwear chain.

A contemporary shoe and accessory brand known as mint&rose is now open, while West Elm, the home furnishings retailer, is expected to open its doors in the summer, a Related spokeswoman said.

Newly opened restaurants include Fish Bowl at High Dive, a pop-up seafood eatery serving light bites and drinks on an outdoor terrace, Pura Vida, which serves juices and health-conscious sandwiches, soups and salads, and Bonita’s, a pop-up tacos and tostadas outpost.

Restaurants scheduled to open in early to mid-2021 include Barrio, a covered outdoor restaurant serving classic Latin neighborhood street food, Planta, a plant-based eatery and True Food Kitchen, which specializes in health-conscious food and drink.

“We’re optimistic. It’s a process, this doesn’t happen overnight,” said Gopal Rajegowda, senior vice president of Related Companies. “The good news for 2021 is that there’s a vaccine on the way.”

Even before COVID’s arrival, he said, the retail world was changing as people moved to buying online and away from the free-standing malls.

“We had a Macy’s in the middle of our district that was built 20 years ago,” he said. “The department store is not the right energy. Things change. Times change. You’ve got to evolve with the times. You’ve got to react to what the market wants.”

That means offering plenty of space to walk around and events such as public art displays.

The old Macy’s — closed three years ago — is being displaced by a 21-story luxury residential tower with retail on the ground floor.

Other enclaves around the region are reporting similar stories.

In Delray Beach, the largest food hall in Florida is set to open next spring at 33 SE Third Ave. with space for 25 vendors.

In Fort Lauderdale, three to four would-be tenants are in negotiations for space along the Las Olas Boulevard commercial district, said Charles Ladd, president and principal of Barron Real Estate. He declined to name them.

Pending new arrivals in early 2021 that have been announced include a GreenWise Market, an Eddie V’s Prime Seafood and a Cuba Libre Restaurant and Rum Bar.

“We’re lucky. We’re in an area that has dynamism and growth,” Ladd said. “If you’re in Nowhere, Georgia, or Missouri, and you have a mall where a Kmart left, you’ll see it sit there for 20 years.”

At the toney Aventura Mall in upscale Aventura just south of the Broward-Miami-Dade County line, new retailers and six new restaurants announced openings in late November.

Nearby, a Brightline high speed rail station is under construction. Although the line suspended service due to COVID-19, business leaders expect the rail line’s eventual resumption will deliver large numbers of potential customers to the area’s doorstep.

A demand for open, smaller spaces

Claudio Mekler, CEO of Miami Manager, a Sunrise-based operator of shopping centers in Coconut Creek, Doral, Sunrise, Plantation and West Palm Beach, said he’s seen a “healthy demand” for retail space over the last six months from store owners who want to occupy vacated areas, or to relocate to spots where consumers feel comfortable shopping during the pandemic.

“For the most part, they are local and regional retailers,” he said. “We are receiving a significant number of inquiries from local and national casual dining restaurant chains seeking to either enter the South Florida market or expand their footprint in this market. The local restaurants want small spaces to do mainly pickup and delivery due to current demand for those services.”

He said it takes up to six months to open a store, so by signing a lease now, an owner “will be able to open by the time the pandemic is more under control due to the vaccine and other factors.”

“Retailers are seeing that consumers are learning to live with the pandemic and getting smart about shopping safely, choosing curbside pickup and more,” he said.

They are catching on to a consumer preference for shopping in places “not confined to the inside of a mall.” So some owners are leaving closed-in malls for more open spaces, he said.

Consumers, Mekler added, “are tired of being at home 24/7. They are increasingly venturing out to connect with the world out there. Our tenants are doing a lot better than they were doing several months ago.

“We have a retail center in West Palm Beach that is home to Kohl’s and Dick’s Sporting Goods and the parking lot in that retail center has been packed in recent months. Our retail tenants are slowly seeing their businesses come back. They still have a way to go to be where they were 10 months ago, but they are optimistic.”

A river runs past it

Along the Miami River west of Brickell Avenue in Miami, the River Landing Shops & Residences occupies more than 8 acres in a complex that is poised to welcome nearly a half dozen retail tenants between now and mid-2021. They include an Ulta Beauty, Ficelle Boulangerie & Patisserie, Sapphire Prive Med Spa, Pediatric Dental Center, and Aspen Dental. A new Planet Fitness just opened its doors.

They’ll be joining a Publix, Ross Dress for Less, Hobby Lobby, Burlington Stores, Five Below, Chase Bank, Old Navy and AT&T, which opened earlier this fall. A Chick-Fil-A and a T.J. Maxx are also scheduled to open in the first quarter of 2021.

Andrew B. Hellinger, a principal of URBAN-X Group, a real estate development and advisory firm that oversees the River Landing development, said it’s becoming a magnet for people from both inside and outside Miami.

“I got a phone call last week from a lady asking if we were open and was looking for something to do,” Hellinger said. “If the shops were open, she was going to shop. She was from West Kendall. We get a lot of people coming out just to check out the property. They walk up the various floors of the project and take selfies. It’s exactly what we had hoped would happen — that residents of the county would come and hang out.

“We know they’re shopping because our retailers are reporting strong activity in their stores,” he added.

Between people’s desire to escape their homes after being cooped up and the sheer nature of South Florida’s consumer-based economy, Hellinger believes a retail revival is inevitable.

“I think there’s pent-up demand,” he said. “South Florida is a consumer market. We buy stuff. People are constantly changing what they wear and how they look. Retailers get that now.”

 

Source:  SunSentinel

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Sterling Bay Completes Wynwood’s Largest Office Building

Sterling Bay has completed 545wyn, the largest office building in Miami’s Wynwood Arts District.

The building has about 270,000 square feet of office space with floor plates ranging from 20,000 to 38,000 square feet and 14-foot ceilings. Each floor has a private terrace. There’s 26,000 square feet of retail on the ground floor, plus a 440-space parking garage. The fifth floor features 25,000 square feet of amenities, including a wellness center, indoor/outdoor collaborative space, conference rooms, an open-air terrace and food and beverage service.

 

Source:  SFBJ

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Miami Beach Goes All Out To Woo Class A Office Space

With companies ranging from Goldman Sachs to one- and two-person shops heading south in droves to tax-friendly states like Florida, Class A office space is a commodity – and one Miami Beach is hoping to build more of.

Multiple ordinances and resolutions are working their way through the Beach’s commission and committees regarding zoning changes and incentives aimed at increasing class A space in strategic areas including parts of Terminal Island, Alton Road, Sunset Harbor and Lincoln Road.

This month commissioners unanimously passed on first reading an ordinance to allow a height increase from 40 feet to 75 for office space on Terminal Island, which would effectively allow developer Related Group to move forward with a five-story, two-building office project on the island if passed on final reading.

More controversial was the second half of the proposed ordinance, which would allow developers to build offices up to 75 feet on the east side of Alton Road between 15th and 17th streets. After hearing public comment and discussing the item, commissioners split the ordinance, sending the Alton Road portion back to the Land Use and Sustainability Committee, where it is to be discussed in January.

A handful of residents spoke against the proposed increases on Alton, which would take the maximum building height from 50 or 60 feet to 75, saying they would be out of character with the neighborhood. Both the Terminal Island and Alton Road portions were recommended unanimously by the city’s planning board, and a memo from former city manager Jimmy Morales said the height increases are essential to the construction of Class A space as they would allow for high ceilings, a defining characteristic of high-end offices.

The planning board is also to review next month a proposal to upzone a single block within Sunset Harbor as part of a pilot program that would allow a maximum height of 65 feet for the area bound by Dade Boulevard on the south, Purdy Avenue on the west, 18th Street on the north, and Bay Road on the east.

If the draft ordinance eventually passes, it will allow for a five-story office and mixed-use building on 1759 Purdy Ave. to be developed by Deco Capital Group. Tracy Slavens, a partner in law firm Holland & Knight’s Miami office who is representing the developer, told commissioners she worked with city staff this summer on the draft, which would allow for the 65-foot height increases and include a sunset clause requiring building permits to be obtained by December 2022.

Commissioners said they hoped this pilot plan would fit into an overall Neighborhood Vision Plan for Sunset Harbor, which addresses issues such as height and setbacks for the entire neighborhood and is in its early stages of working through the legislative process.

Members of the public expressed overwhelming support for the Deco Group project itself, which would take the place of an empty lot, but a few expressed concerns about the single-block zoning including the possibility of structures on top of the higher roofs like bulkheads adding even more height.

Commissioners noted that in a final ordinance regulations on rooftop structures could be examined, and Commissioner Michael Gongora requested that language be added to ensure the height increase would only be allowed on lots large enough to support it.

The city in October also requested letters of interest in development of three municipal parking lots adjacent to Lincoln Road, Miami Today reported, with plans to close the process next month and consider requesting proposals to build class A offices on Surface Parking Lots 25, 26 and 27. Lyle Stern, a member of the Lincoln Road Business Improvement District, said the group planned to work with the city and its own public relations representatives at Schwartz Media Management to craft a marketing plan targeting developers around the world.

 

Source:  Miami Today

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Wynwood Mixed-Use Project Gets Design Backing

One of the largest mixed-use projects coming to the booming Wynwood Arts District has received the support of an important review board.

AMLI Wynwood is designed to bring 316 residential units and 30,596 square feet of commercial-retail uses to 70 NW 25th St.

Despite concerns about the massing of the project and its repetitive façade, the Wynwood Design Review Committee recommended approval, after listing several conditions.

PPF AMLI 45 Wynwood LLC is proposing the eight-story building with 544,515 square feet. The building includes a garage for up to 388 vehicles, and 43 bike rack spaces.

The developer said the project will provide needed residential space while activating the street with commercial uses.

Javier F. Aviñó, an attorney for the developer, wrote to the city saying the project includes activated frontages pulled up to the street, creating an engaging pedestrian environment.

“The Project incorporates a generous cross block passage for through-block pedestrian connectivity between 24th Street and 25th Street and numerous landscaped courtyards for residents, including on the 7th and 8th floors,” he wrote.

The passage will be lined with retail and food and beverage options.

To aid in breaking up the building massing, the project includes a more dramatic setback of 17 feet on the upper floors along 24th Street and carries the internal courtyard spaces up through the building, said Mr. Aviñó.

He said the project will provide plenty of opportunities for large murals or graphic art treatments throughout.

The site is within the Neighborhood Revitalization District (NRD-1), the intent of which is to transition the existing Wynwood industrial district into an active, diverse, mixed-use neighborhood.

The NRD-1 district aims to preserve the unique industrial character of the area while promoting a 24-hour environment where people work, live, and play.

Ray Fort of architectural firm Arquitectonica presented details about the site and renderings for the building.

“We have about 200 feet of frontage along 25th Street and 450 along Northwest 24th. We have this T shaped site to work with,” he said.

All amenities are planned for the rooftop level including a dog run, outdoor seating and a barbecue area, a pool and a fitness area.

“Wynwood is an entertainment district and naturally what comes with that is a lot of noise, but people want to live in the area as well,” said Mr. Fort.

“So, the design takes that into account to make sure these are quiet (residential) units, recessed from the street and shielded so people can really live in this neighborhood and not be so impacted by the noise,” he said.

Chairman Victor Sanchez said, “If I look at the individual pieces on a case by case basis, it makes sense … I like the concept and idea … but when you put it all together, it’s a massive project.”

He added, “It stands out. It’s almost like it was designed outside of Wynwood and then placed in here … it almost looks like a massive repetitive building.”

There were some items he liked.

“I love the passage. I love the courtyards and the great creative way to bring natural lighting into those unique spaces, and most are accessible to the public, which is nice,” he said.

But Mr. Sanchez said he didn’t like the repetitive façade.

Committee member Amanda Hertzler agreed, calling the building monolithic.

“The façade feels expansive … The density is just packed in … I do wish I saw more of a differential between the façades so it did feel like it was broken up a little bit,” she said.

Other committee members echoed statements about the massing of the building and the repetitive façade.

In response, Mr. Fort said “the project has to have some sense of unification. You have to clearly signal to your user how to get in, how to get out. With multiple façades you create issues of ‘what building are we looking at here.’”

After more discussion, Mr. Fort said developers would consider subtle changes in the grid work patterns and the colors.

On the vote to recommend approval the committee listed several conditions: add modulation and variety to the street front articulation; widen and celebrate the entrance to the paseo; consider subtle changes to the façade including paint patterns and more; and different balconies and railings; and engage a proper art consultant.

The applicant is seeking waivers to allow:

  • Up to a 30% reduction in required parking spaces. The property is within a quarter mile of a transit corridor, including multiple Metrobus lines and trolley routes.
  • 86% lot coverage when 80% is permitted.
  • Vehicular entries less than 60 feet apart.

 

Source:  Miami Today

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Overtown Covets Status As Food And Entertainment District

The Southeast Overtown/Park West Community Redevelopment Agency’s vision to position Overtown as a food and entertainment district and reclaim the neighborhood’s historic culture is closer to realization.

After being honored with the Redevelopment Association Awards’ Outstanding Rehabilitation, Reuse Project award for rehabilitating and transforming the former Clyde Killens Pool Hall building into a Red Rooster restaurant at 920 NW Second Ave., the agency is using this milestone as the first step to attract tourists and locals to visit Overtown for its entertainment and vibrant nightlife, said Cornelius Shiver, the community redevelopment agency’s executive director.

“Historically, we have a rich cultural and heritage background dating back during the segregation days,” he said. “Overtown was renowned for its black hotels, blues clubs and nightlife. We have decided to bring back those glory days.”

In 2018, the redevelopment agency’s board, made up of the five Miami city commissioners, approved the Historic Overtown Culture and Entertainment District Master Plan. The vision is to create a distinct place that reclaims the role of Overtown in the history and culture of Miami. The plan aims to establish a compact, walkable community with access to local and regional transit and centralized parking and to re-establish the neighborhood as Miami’s center for black culture, entertainment and entrepreneurship. 

Developed by Wills + Perkins Inc., the plan will also enable new development, local investment, a place for businesses to grow and bring folks back to Overtown to live, Mr. Shiver added. 

With the $5 million revitalization of Red Rooster Overtown and the Historic Lyric Theater at 819 SW Second Ave. as signature establishments, next on the culture and entertainment district master plan’s agenda is a boutique hotel, at least five more restaurants, art studios and a $3.5 million invested nightclub named Harlem Square.

“Parking is my next priority because business opportunities will work itself out,” Mr. Shiver said of infrastructure upgrades like sidewalks and sewer improvements, which will cost about $4 million, and development of at least 1,100 parking spaces and parking garages costing about $15 million to $20 million.

Funded through tax increment revenues, the agency reinvests these funds back into the redevelopment area by funding projects that enhance the quality of life for residents and attract new businesses geared to promote and support job-creating initiatives.

“We have to increase our annual median income, which is around $22,000, to support our residents with more job creators who will hire our residents, who have disproportionately suffered for too long,” Mr. Shiver said. “My simple formula to eradicate poverty is to have good jobs, affordable housing and a safe neighborhood.”

 

Source:  Miami Today

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Here’s What Industry Leaders Predict In 2021

There’s no doubt that 2020 was a wild year for real estate. From the Covid-19 pause that stopped showings and sales entirely, to the slow recovery and crashing rental market in condo-saturated Manhattan, to hot markets in metro-area suburbs, there were plenty of downs and ups.

From the Manhattan condo and rental recovery to what will happen with inventory, we gathered some predictions on what the market holds for 2021.

When Condos Will Recover

Eric Benaim, chief executive officer and founder of Queens, N.Y.-based brokerage Modern Spaces, says he expects to start seeing the condo market pick up by the second quarter of 2021.

“Many developers reduced pricing during COVID, so buyers will now see an opportunity to purchase a ‘value,’” Benaim says. “The FED has said it plans on holding the current interest rates until 2023, which will also help.”

Rental Recovery?

Andrew Barrocas, the chief executive officer of New York City brokerage MNS, thinks the New York City market will recover 50% of what was lost by the summer of 2021, though all experts say it depends on how many employees return to the office and how many businesses recruit new employees to work onsite.

“That’s contingent on 50% of people returning to the office,” Barrocas says. “If 75% return, the market will recover 75%. If it’s 25%, the market will recover 25%. We have 20,000 vacant apartments right now. It’s purely a supply and demand issue. There’s a direct correlation with the rental market and people retuning to the office and with the current trends, I feel 50% of people will be back in Summer 2021. It’s what makes New York, New York.”

Jared Antin, director of sales at New York City’s Elegran brokerage firm, thinks it will take at least 18 to 24 months for things to turn around.

“Although the amount of new leases being signed this fall are comparable to the amount signed this time last year, the non-renewal rate is through the roof, causing an incredible increase in inventory and pressure for landlords,” Antin says. “The vacancy rate in NYC has risen above 5% for the first time in at least 14 years, and landlords are dropping prices and increasing concessions to fill the vacancies. It will take 18 to 24 months, and at least two cycles of new employees coming to NYC, to absorb this inventory. During this time, we will see minimal new rental inventory in the pipeline. When the inventory does absorb, we will then see prices increase until new inventory can be built.”

Benaim of Modern Spaces agrees that the rental market in New York City has a long way to go to recovery.

“Available inventory is at a record high and new units that are hitting the market now will take some time to be absorbed,” Benaim says. “My hope is that as more and more people start to come back to work available inventory will be absorbed, and I believe if all goes well, then the rental market should be back to near pre-Coronavirus numbers by September when schools will open and there is more consumer certainty and confidence.”

Scott Meyer, chief investment officer at real estate investment and development firm PTM Partners, thinks the rental market may be buoyed by people who underestimated the challenges of homeownership.

“We have a couple at Watermark (in Washington, DC) who sold their single-family home to rent a two-bedroom after realizing they did not want to deal with the hassle of home maintenance and renovations,” Meyer says.

Even More Flexibility

Flexibility in lease terms is here to stay, and Will Lucas, founder and chief executive officer of Mint House, which provides high-end, short term rentals for business travelers, predicted that 5 to 10% of multifamily buildings in urban areas will sign agreements with a short-term rental or corporate housing company to combat a tough lease-up environment.

“Lease terms will become more flexible as individuals travel and temporarily relocate given the work-from-home trends driven by the coronavirus pandemic,” Lucas says. “We have already seen an increase in guests signing on to stay with us anywhere from two months to nine months to avoid signing a full-year lease.”

Increased Inventory

Michael Nourmand, president of Los Angeles-based brokerage firm Nourmand & Associates, believes inventory should increase.

“Right now, inventory is very low because of economic and political uncertainty as well as health concerns,” Nourmand says. “In addition, you have rising prices so sellers are benefitting from holding off on selling their properties. …Price appreciation will level off. I think demand will remain strong because Los Angeles is a desirable place to live but supply will increase so price appreciation will slow down. In addition, low interest rates are already baked into the equation.” 

Second-Home Syndrome

After busy markets in vacation communities, Mark Durliat, chief executive officer and co-founder of Grace Bay Resorts, predicts even more vacation home purchases.

“People are vacationing differently now than ever before, and many are putting a bigger focus on privacy and cleanliness while still having the benefits of exclusivity and luxury,” Durliat says. “Vacation homes provide the confidence that travelers will always return to a clean and safe space. What’s more, vacation homes in a managed community … offer real potential for rental income that can offset ownership expenses.” 

Along with the rise of the vacation home, Hunter Frick, senior vice president of marketing at Brown Harris Stevens Development Marketing, predicts the rise of the “co-primary residence,” or an apartment near the office in the city.

“As executives who decamped to areas outside Manhattan ease into month nine of work from home, their mindset has changed indefinitely,” Frick says. “They will never abandon the unrivaled energy of Manhattan, but it’s a place where they will spend three days a week before they retreat to their homes upstate, in the Hamptons and Connecticut. Many will look to find new housing closer to the office, which will help the struggling Midtown residential market.”

“This lifestyle aligns with feedback we are receiving from our current buyer pool,” Frick continued. “Most anticipate the future of work as a much more fluid and flexible where work and life blend.”

Though it’s yet to be seen what the controversial resurfacing of the pied-à-terre tax will do to that market.

Increased Foreign Interest

While foreign investment has been slow this year, and some say it never left, some in the industry believe it’s coming back along with the continued opening of new developments.

“Condo demand won’t die long term,” Jim Cohen, president of residential for Florida-based FontaineBleau Development. “I’m in continuous communication with the 1% international buyer pool. People still want waterfront living in Miami and not just single-family homes. Waterfront investments mean a ton of maintenance and serious insurance policies. So while the pandemic has shown the importance of space and privacy through the increase of sales in the single-family home market —Miami-Dade sales jumped 16.6% year-over-year according to the Miami Association of Realtors — a mansion in the sky with a resort-style lifestyle sans the hassle of maintenance may be the better option. Our newest waterfront luxury project, Turnberry Ocean Club offers family-size duplex condos and 70,000 square feet of indoor/outdoor amenities that include a coffee lounge, two restaurants and a three-floor sky club. During the pandemic, we actually sold a number of units to international buyers, which make up 30% of our buyer pool. My takeaway, people still want the resort-style luxury experience.”

Dan Kodsi, chief executive officer of Florida-based Royal Palm Companies, thinks renewed foreign investment provides a market for smaller units.

“The foreign buyer is looking for resort-like homes that are practical and functional with a sense of sophistication and luxury that they can return to once or twice a year that can be maintained for them,” Kodsi says. “The new fully furnished microLUXE residences at Legacy Hotel and Residences offer micro floor plans with no rental restrictions. About 75% of Legacy Hotel and Residences’ buyers are international.”

Virtual And VIP 

Greg Willett, chief Economist at RealPage, a real estate technology and analytics firm, says the use of virtual leasing and communication tools will continue to expand, with functions moved offsite.

“Similarly, we will see more virtual leasing — not just virtual tours — and there will be expanded virtual resident engagement, including resident-to-resident interaction,” Willett says.

Elana Friedman, chief marketing officer for AKA, which offers long-stay hotel residences, says amenity spaces will be reservation-only for Covid-19 safety.

“At AKA, residents have the ability to book our shared common areas and amenities, like our cinema,” Friedman says.

 

Source:  Forbes

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